Managing Change – survive and thrive

Managing Change

The best way to survive and thrive

 

Change is inevitable

Corporate change can unleash spectres. From the appointment of a senior member to a change in consumer trends, to an economic low. Change is inevitable, yet can reveal unforeseeable challenges. For those aware of the stages it can also present a unique opportunity for growth.

As the business world has discovered, managing change equals healthy evolution – one that can bring a struggling brand back from the brink and redefine product and market share. For others it can be an opportunity to stand firm on beliefs and ownership.

Communication is Key

Through frank and open discussion, as awareness of impact and resistance transforms, the individual and the team can optimise ideas, give people a voice, and uncover new opportunities.

Using digital templates and practical tools like milestone charts can help introduce a greater range of skills. New methods can increase productivity and thereby improve the dynamics. However, the real fun is sharing the ‘build’ together. ‘All change gives team members an opportunity to publicly assess, comment and become part of something bigger, better.’

As corporate business becomes competitively charged to maximise bottom line, therefore even the most fundamental change will affect your workforce. This list of ten commandments from Forbes can help you target the tough messages.

Hit the wall and bounce back!

According to the Kubler-Ross Change Curve there will be five stages of change. The first is the initial impact. The second, resistance. The third is slow recovery through uncertainty and fourth, a settling-in before the final stage of conformity.

To ensure a smooth transition, assess style and level of communication. Leading with enthusiasm often tips the balance towards success – you can learn how to in our change management course London.

It Can’t Work!  

The length of time required for an individual to adjust is going to vary. Time and Intensity are the variables. Concerns should be the junctions that offer the opportunity for transparent conversation, clear objectives and 1-2-1 planning. A time for ideas and innovation, not road blocks or side tracks.

Conclusion

As shown in figure 1 the structures of how to approach change can be a useful guide, however there is one thing that most would agree on. When managing change the most valuable resource are the opinions of others. Consequently, when you promote discussion, whether you heed opinions or not, you allow others to be involved, and that is the most important part of the managing change process.

 

 

Forecasting in Excel 2016

Forecasting is important in many circumstances to be able to do effective and efficient planning.

The future electricity needs forecast vital to planning building more power stations; scheduling employees in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; just imaging how much forecasting the planners behind London 2012 Olympic Games must have done. Forecasts can be needed months or years in advance, or only a few minutes beforehand. Whatever the situations or time horizons involved, accurate forecasts are vital part of preparation and planning. Learn more about Excel training spreadsheet.

A key step in forecasting is knowing if something can be forecast accurately, or if it is better just tossing a coin. Good forecasts capture the authentic patterns and relationships which exist in the historical data, but do not replicate events from the past that will not happen again.

In all businesses where data are collected and employees make use of the data the capability to forecast may be required. It doesn’t really matter if it is sales figures, expenses, man-hours, growth, market shares etc. to create a budget you need to forecast.

WhatIf Analysis

Excel offer a lot of tools to do accurate forecasts based on historical data and analysis tools as the What If Analysis tools to help predict the future.

Some of the useful forecasting tools in Excel are:

  • For trend analysis you can use the Trend function and to visualize and calculate trends, Excel charts can show trends and the equation for the trend. You can calculate the accuracy of the trend or Excel can provide you with this information in a chart. The Trend function will only return a accurate result if you work with linear data.

forecast trend

  • For forecasting of linear data you can use the Forecast function. The Forecast function can forecast any number of periods into the future.
  • If you work with exponential data you can use the Growth function to forecast and an exponential trends can also be visualized in a Excel chart.

forecast exponential

  • the Solver tool in Excel can be a huge help if you want to forecast seasonal data.
  • The Analysis Toolpak provide us with Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average and Regression which are all tools we need for creating the right forecast model.
  • The Scenario Manager and the Goal Seek tools can be a great help to get a accurate forecast.
  • Excel also has all the options and functions to measure the accuracy of our forecast to make it possible to continuously develop our forecast model to get a very precise forecast.

Forecasting Chart

In Excel 2016 Microsoft has made it much easier to forecast. Microsoft has added the Forecast Sheet tool to Excel. This tool can give you a forecast in few seconds.

In Excel 2016, select your two corresponding sets of data and go to “Data>Forecast>Forecast Sheet”. In “Create Forecast Worksheet” box, choose either a line chart or column chart, pick an end date, and then click “Create”.

Forecast Sheet dialog

For more advanced options click “Options” in “Create Forecast Worksheet”. Here you can set “Confidence Interval” and set how you want Excel to handle seasonality in your data. You can include statistics in your forecast worksheet and change the input range if needed.

Forecast Sheet expanded dialog

In the “Fill Missing Points Using” list, you can tell Excel how to handle missing data. “Interpolation” will calculate missing data.

In the “Aggregate Duplicates Using” list, select how you want Excel to calculate duplicate entries.

 forecastETS function

Best STL offer a Forecasting & Data analysis course where all the different methods & models are explored. It is a selection from our Office 365 training London courses.

Excel is an amazing tool also when you need to forecast.